You aren't smarter than the market. It really is that simple. The idea that you can "take money" out of your home is a common myth that gets a lot of people in trouble in a hot real estate market. It is a myth that is based on several misunderstandings that are often repeated. Myth 1: When an investment you own goes up in value you have "made money." In fact, you only make money from an asset's appreciation when you sell the asset. Until then, the current valuation is just an estimate of how much money you will make when you actually sell it. As long as you still own the asset, the value you will get is still in play. It isn't money. This is particularly important with a home. If you want to take your profit out of your house you have to sell it and that usually means replacing it with another home. Myth 2: Refinancing "takes your equity" out of your house. This myth is particularly pernicious. In fact, the description of people ...
You aren't smarter than the market. It really is that simple. The New York Times had an article about the stock market's recent gains. The story noted that while the market had gone up 11% since the election, the dollar had dropped 10% against a basket of foreign currencies during that same period. They described this as "almost a mirror image." Unfortunately it is exactly a mirror image for people who hold those foreign currencies. Lets say they paid a $100 for a share of stock the day of the election and they exchanged 100 units of their own currency for that $100. Now if they sell that stock they will get $111 dollars, but when they exchange that $111 dollars, they will get back 100 units of their own currency. They have earned nothing, in their own local currency's terms the price hasn't changed. In a world investment market, the price of stock is set by what people around the world are willing to pay for it. Most people are still paying the same pr...